September is the beginnings of the fall market and usually when we see activity start to slow down, and while sales came down from the previous month, the housing market is still very strong throughout Central Alberta.  Red Deer posted 165 sales in September, a 13% drop from August, however it’s a 23% increase over September of 2022, and active listings are down 44% from the same time last year.  As I type this, Red Deer is currently sitting with only 282 active listings, and 20% of those are currently pending with accepted offers, leaving just 226 homes for sale.  In a more balanced market, inventory would be roughly double that number.

The Alberta government just posted that 184,400 people have moved into our province since July 1, 2022, the largest increase in population in Alberta history and the fastest growth of a province in Canadian history.  More people means the need for more housing, and our builders simply don’t have the capacity to build at the same pace that people are moving here.  Canada’s aging population and lower birth rates mean we need to bring people in from other countries to fill important job roles and keep our economies running, but we still need to be able to house these new residents.

Low supply and high demand means we’ll continue to see prices push up in our province, even despite the higher interest rates.  Many forecasters are expecting another rate hike of .25% on October 25, but it’s not likely to calm the market much, as vacancy rates for rentals around the province are near zero, so rentals are a tough option as well.

Lower cost of living is just one of the reasons people are choosing Alberta, and for reference (and only stating housing as an example), the average detached home in Toronto is $1,250,000.  The average detached home in Vancouver is just over $2,000,000.  Calgary’s average detached home is $635,000.  To somebody living in Toronto or Vancouver, that looks like an amazing deal.  When you factor in a good economy with plenty of jobs, lower income taxes, and less consumer taxes, Alberta becomes a very attractive option for overall quality of life.

If we see interest rates come down next spring, we’re going to see prices drive up even more, as more buyers will enter the market.  If you’re a buyer waiting for rates to drop, it may be a more prudent strategy to buy now with a short term rate, and renew the mortgage when the rates come down, before we see the property values go up further.  It could save you a ton in the long term.  Overall, it’s a great time to be a home owner in Alberta, and should continue to be for the foreseeable future.

• Looking at the market stats:  Demand for homes under $600k is still substantial, and remains the hottest point in our market.  The $300-$400k range sold 94% of the inventory, which means only 6% of the homes listed in that price range didn’t sell last month, a staggering statistic.  The higher end markets are seeing some activity still, however sales are still at a much lower pace, which has been a continuing theme throughout most of the year.  The acreage market remains strong under the million dollar mark, however available options to buy continue to be extremely limited until you look over the million dollar mark, where there are currently 35 active listings available.  The condo market is also seeing great activity, and also suffering from a lack of available inventory.  Low inventory is going to be the continuing theme in the market for at least the next year or more.

Surrounding Community Snapshot:

Blackfalds:

Current Active Listings – 38

Sales in September – 21

Likelihood to Sell – 55% (Seller’s Market)

Sylvan Lake:

Current Active Listings – 129

Sales in September – 50

Likelihood to Sell – 39% (Balanced Market)

Penhold:

Current Active Listings – 11

Sales in September – 6

Likelihood to Sell – 55% (Seller’s Market)