It’s safe to say winter has officially arrived in Alberta after a very mild fall, and sales numbers followed the temperature in November.  Sales in Red Deer dropped by 22% compared to a busier October, however active inventory has dropped by 18% which means we’re still sitting in a nicely balanced market in most categories.

It’s typical and expected for the market to cool off at this time of year.  With people’s focus shifting to family, holidays, travel, and so forth many people will put their house hunting on hold and wait for the spring.  With that being said, if people are home shopping right now, you can be fairly certain that they’re serious buyers.

CMHC is forecasting that Calgary will be Canada’s hottest real estate market in 2026, which means Central Alberta will be feeling that too.  I don’t believe we’re going to see any massive price increases, however I do think we’re likely to see things tick up and recover some of the price dip that we’ve seen this fall.  Alberta’s economy is the best in the country and we’re still some of the most affordable real estate despite falling prices in BC and Ontario.  Overall I expect 2026 to be another active year.

Market Trends Year Over Year

✅ Sales Activity: Residential sales increased year over year to 128, up from 110 in November 2024.
✅ New Listings: Climbed to 135, compared to 112 last year, indicating more sellers entering the late-year market.
✅ Active Listings: Inventory rose to 271, up from 206 in Nov 2024, giving buyers more selection than last winter.
✅ Absorption Rate: Settled at 47.2%, down from 53.4% last year, reflecting increased supply relative to demand.
✅ Average Price: Reached $388,289, up 2% year-over-year (+$7,609), showing stable values across the market.

Single Family Homes

🏡 Sales Performance: Increased to 78, compared to 66 in November 2024.
🏡 New Listings: Rose to 87, up from 74 last year, helping replenish inventory.
🏡 Absorption Rate: Recorded at 40.2%, slightly lower than 43.7% last year as supply increased.
🏡 Price Trends: The average single-family price dipped to $455,404, down 2.7% year-over-year due to a softer fall market in 2025.

Red Deer County Acreage Market

🌲 $600K–$900K Acreages: Strong activity with multiple sales and high absorption, but very limited available inventory.
🌲 $900K–$1M: 50% absorption rate shows how limited inventory currently is.
🌲 $1M+ Luxury: Slower pace — 5% absorption with only 1 sale out of 20 listings.

Market Supply & Demand Trends

📈 Inventory Growth: Listing levels continue to trend higher year-over-year, particularly in detached and attached product types.
📊 Mid-Market Strength: Homes priced $300K–$600K continue to anchor buyer demand.
🏘️ Duplex/Townhouse: Sales improved from 27 → 33, with the average price rising 7.6% to $308,891.
🏢 Apartment Condos: Average price surged 23.5% to $234,476, alongside a jump in absorption from 54.8% → 68%.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

Buyers

✅ More inventory means more choice compared to last year
✅ Best value sits in higher-end homes and $1M+ acreages
✅ Mid-market price points remain active

Sellers

✅ Year-over-year sales growth shows buyers are still engaged
✅ Attached & condo segments show strong price appreciation
✅ With inventory up, pricing + presentation matter more than ever

Central Alberta Snapshot:

Blackfalds:

Current Active Listings – 44

Sales in November – 22

Likelihood to Sell – 50% (Seller’s Market)

Sylvan Lake:

Current Active Listings – 96

Sales in November – 25

Likelihood to Sell – 26% (Buyer’s Market)

Penhold:

Current Active Listings – 12

Sales in November – 9

Likelihood to Sell – 75% (Seller’s Market)