Central Alberta residential MLS sales in March were up 36% compared to February while the number of active listings only increased by 12%.  The sales to listing ratio was 44% representing another strong seller’s market.  The number of sales in March 2024 were almost exactly the same as March 2023, while year to date sales in 2024 are up 7.5% compared to 2023.

We know that residential prices have been consistently going up the last three years, but It’s difficult to calculate exactly how much.  Average and median prices are not exact science but do show the trend.  The combined median price for all MLS residential sales in Red Deer, Blackfalds, Lacombe, Ponoka, Sylvan Lake, Rocky Mountain House, Penhold and Innisfail is up 14.7% from 2021 to the first quarter of 2024 while the average price is up 15.24%.  In Red Deer the median is up 11.7% and the average is up 10.8% for the same time period.

Looking at the graphs, certain price points are increasing at a faster rate than others.  There’s been a market shift in the last 10 days or so where demand has picked up, especially under $400,000 where we’re starting to see more and more multiple offers and homes selling over list price.  That same level of demand hasn’t shifted to the higher price points yet, but we may start to see sales trickle up into the higher ranges as people selling their lower priced homes purchase more expensive properties.  As prices go up, existing home owners see their equity increase giving them the ability to upgrade to larger homes with minimal increases to their mortgage payments.

The Bank of Canada announced today that they’re going to continue holding interest rates until inflation is either closer to 2% (currently at 2.8% for reference) or right at the target of 2%, and changed their forecast for rate reductions to late 2024 or early 2025.  At this point, if we see rates come down, it’s going to send prices up even further as demand increases and more buyers enter the market.  At current pace, it’s likely we’ll continue to see prices push up as we enter the spring and summer markets when demand is at its highest.

Blackfalds:

Current Active Listings – 27

Sales in March – 24

Likelihood to Sell – 88% (Seller’s Market)

Sylvan Lake:

Current Active Listings – 119

Sales in March – 48

Likelihood to Sell – 40% (Seller’s Market)

Penhold:

Current Active Listings – 11

Sales in March – 6

Likelihood to Sell – 55% (Seller’s Market)